DISCLAIMER: I do not claim to be a Bernie Sanders supporter. I sit somewhere else on the political spectrum however I have tremendous respect for his campaign and what he has achieved in the 2016 Election Cycle.
I’m also not even American so my opinion is pretty arbitrary but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
Against the popular opinion of bias seeking millennials, it would appear that the presidential campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders is on its last legs. Despite my initial tone I actually feel somewhat disheartened by the reality that grassroots politics once again has fallen second place. After this post feel free to shed a tear for the 99%, but lets not convert our anger into becoming Trump supporters. Please.
Michigan, or, a last hurrah for Bernie Sanders.
A glimmer of hope shined on the 22nd of March when Bernie Sanders narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton in the Michigan primary. Prior to this, Clinton had been been smashing Sanders in a large number of high delegate states. This isn’t to say that Sanders hadn’t been performing well, the unfortunate fact of the matter was that Sanders was largely winning low delegate white states in the Mid-West. such Oklahoma and Kansas.
Post Michigan, all eyes were on Sanders to succeed strongly on the March 25th primaries, especially in the rust belt states. The reason for this is that Sanders’ campaign is able to target low income workers who have lost their jobs to outsourcing. Sanders’ protectionist leanings should theoretically have made him an inspiration to the American worker.
There was one slight issue with the results of the March 25th Primaries. Hillary won every state.
but… but… he st-still has a ch-chance..?
He really doesn’t. Whilst the primaries are still taking place, the rust belt was a necessity for the Sanders campaign. By winning those key states, Hillary has demonstrated an ability to win over the disenfranchised working class, ie: the core group of voters Sanders has been targeting for the entirety of his campaign.
To even have a shot, Sanders has to win the two largest delegate states left in the Primary Election: California and New York. New York is Hillary Clinton’s home state, whilst it is possible for a candidate to lose in their home state (rest in peace Marco Rubio’s dreams) there are very few signs to suggest that Bernie Sanders can take New York away from Clinton.
…and then there’s California…
California is a state whose voter base is heavily dominated by affluent white people and disenfranchised hispanics, both of which are typically Clinton supporters. An example of a very similar demographic Florida, a state in which Clinton crushed Sanders by 30%
Although you will find the occasional article claiming that “Sanders still has a chance! Feel the Bern amirite?” there is very little evidence suggesting Bernie Sanders can win the democrat nomination. The issue with these articles is that they aren’t calculating “Who is going to win the nomination given the facts?” they are instead asking “How can Bernie Sanders win the nomination and what facts can I pick to support my argument?”
Remember this guy?
Sorry Rand, but the real Ron Paul of this election has been Bernie Sanders. Ron Paul’s performance in the 2012 GOP Primary saw himself take the role of the political outsider. By presenting himself as an enemy of the establishment and a supporter of the Occupy protests, Paul gained massive popularity across the USA; especially among young voters.
Despite being at hugely contrasting ends of the economic spectrum, (Sanders identifying as a socialist whilst Paul identifying as a libertarian) the comparisons between the two are undeniable.
Bernie Sanders is to going to meet the same fate as Ron Paul did back in 2012 and this is why voter turnout among young voters is so appalling. Even though Ron Paul won the popular vote, he still finished fourth & last place in the GOP Delegate count. The lack of validation for movements that appeal to new ideas continues to halt political progress and perpetuate the status quo.
You win again Wall St, are you happy now?
#dreamteam. In another life maybe.
Maybe you can incite people to rally against the establishment, Donald Trump seems to be doing a pretty stellar job of it. However if candidates like Trump are the only way to rally an anti-establishment cause for success I will have very little faith left in the world…
If Bernie somehow wins I’ll happily eat my words and write a blog post of shame.